Global and Site-Specific Osteoarthritis Burden, 1990–2021, and Rehabilitation Capacity Modeling for Indonesia: A Spatiotemporal Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37275/bsm.v10i9.1654Keywords:
Capacity modeling, Estimated annual percentage change, Global burden of disease, Osteoarthritis, RehabilitationAbstract
Background: Osteoarthritis is a major and growing cause of disability, but prevalence does not directly measure clinically assessed rehabilitation need, demand, utilization, or unmet need.
Objective: We quantified global, regional, national, and joint-site burden and linked rehabilitation-amenable prevalence to transparent capacity scenarios for Indonesia.
Methods: We integrated annual WHO/IHME rehabilitation-amenable osteoarthritis estimates for 195 countries (1990–2021), published GBD 2019 site-specific prevalence, published GBD 2021 incidence and years lived with disability, and WHO rehabilitation specifications. EAPC was calculated from annual posterior-mean age-standardized rates using log-linear regression; published joinpoint AAPC retained its original name. Deterministic scenarios converted Indonesia’s 2021 prevalence into direct-contact hours and multidisciplinary FTE-year equivalents.
Results: In 2021, 371.6 million people globally and 9.08 million in Indonesia had osteoarthritis-related functioning problems for which rehabilitation could be beneficial. From 1990 to 2021, prevalence increased by 137.7% globally and 199.8% in Indonesia. Prevalence EAPC was 0.34% annually globally and 0.55% in Indonesia. Knee osteoarthritis had the highest site-specific rate, whereas hand incidence and YLDs had the fastest published AAPCs in several middle-SDI settings. Indonesia’s foundational, scale-up, and comprehensive scenarios produced 5,673, 29,223, and 93,914 direct-contact FTE-year equivalents.
Conclusion: Rehabilitation-amenable osteoarthritis burden increased faster in Indonesia than globally and varied by joint site and development level. Scenario outputs are model-based decision quantities, not national staffing requirements or workforce gaps, and require stakeholder validation with local severity, capacity, delivery, referral, adherence, and workforce data.
Authors
- Dina Wulandari1*
- 1Department of Medical Rehabilitation, Datu Sanggul Regional General Hospital, Tapin, Indonesia
Corresponding author Dina Wulandari — Dinaa.wulandari8888@gmail.com
Article history
- Submitted
- Accepted
- Published
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Dina Wulandari
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
As our aim is to disseminate original research article, hence the publishing right is a necessary one. The publishing right is needed in order to reach the agreement between the author and publisher. As the journal is fully open access, the authors will sign an exclusive license agreement.
The authors have the right to:
- Share their article in the same ways permitted to third parties under the relevant user license.
- Retain copyright, patent, trademark and other intellectual property rights including research data.
- Proper attribution and credit for the published work.
For the open access article, the publisher is granted to the following right.
- The non-exclusive right to publish the article and grant right to others.
- For the published article, the publisher applied for the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
