Excess Adiposity Predicts In-Hospital Mortality but Not SCORTEN in Stevens–Johnson Syndrome and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis: A Three-Year Retrospective Cohort at Dr. Moewardi General Hospital, Surakarta
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37275/bsm.v10i10.1666Keywords:
Body mass index, Hospital mortality, Obesity, Severity of illness index, Stevens-Johnson syndromeAbstract
Background: Stevens–Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are rare drug-induced reactions in which in-hospital death occurs in 12–49% of cases, yet the reference prognostic instrument, SCORTEN, contains no anthropometric variable. Whether body mass index (BMI) carries independent prognostic information is unknown.
Objective: To determine whether body mass index carries independent prognostic information — for in-hospital mortality and for the SCORTEN severity score — in adults admitted with Stevens–Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis.
Methods: This retrospective observational analytic study used total sampling of the ICD-10 L51.1/L51.2 admission register at Dr. Moewardi General Hospital, Surakarta, from January 2022 to December 2024. Forty-three adults were classified by Asia-Pacific BMI thresholds and analysed against SCORTEN, diagnostic class and in-hospital mortality using exact, Firth-penalised and interval-valued methods, with STROBE reporting.
Results: Eight patients died (18.6%; 95% CI 9.7–32.6). BMI was not associated with SCORTEN (Spearman ρ = 0.163; 95% CI −0.14 to 0.44; p = 0.296), and all 3,280 exhaustively enumerated reconstructions of the incompletely reported score distribution reproduced a non-significant coefficient (ρ 0.061–0.287); the minimum detectable |ρ| was 0.42, so this null is uninformative rather than negative (BF01 = 3.10). Mortality rose across the ordered BMI strata from 0% to 36.4% (Cochran–Armitage z = 2.053; p = 0.040, exact permutation p = 0.056), and at the Asia-Pacific overweight threshold reached 35.3% versus 7.7% (odds ratio 6.55; 95% CI 1.14–37.75; Fisher exact p = 0.042; Firth-penalised odds ratio 5.54, 95% CI 1.20–34.09; number needed to harm 3.6; E-value 8.65; fragility index 1).
Conclusion: Excess adiposity is associated with in-hospital death in Indonesian patients with epidermal necrolysis through a channel SCORTEN does not capture. The estimate is imprecise and requires prospective multicentre confirmation.
Authors
- Nugrohoaji Dharmawan1*
- Aulia Yasmin1
- 1Department of Dermatology and Venereology, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret/Dr. Moewardi General Hospital, Surakarta, Indonesia
Corresponding author Nugrohoaji Dharmawan — nugrohoaji_d@staff.uns.ac.id
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